Exploratory COVID-19 death risk score based on basic laboratory tests and physiological clinical measurements.

BACKGROUND: In the event of a sudden shortage of medical resources, a rapid, simple, and accurate prediction model is essential for the 30-day mortality rate of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective study compared the characteristics of the survivals and non-survivals of 278 patients with COVID-19. Logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain the "COVID-19 death risk score" (CDRS) model. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, discrimination and calibration were assessed. Internal validation was conducted using a regular bootstrap method. RESULTS: A total of 63 (22.66%) of 278 included patients died. The logistic regression analysis revealed that high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP; odds ratio [OR]=1.018), D-dimer (OR=1.101), and respiratory rate (RR; OR=1.185) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. CDRS was calculated as follows: CDRS=-10.245+(0.022×hsCRP)+(0.172×D-dimer)+(0.203×RR). CDRS had the same predictive effect as the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and "confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age over 65 years" (CURB-65) scores, with AUROCs of 0.984 for CDRS, 0.975 for SOFA, and 0.971 for CURB-65, respectively. And CDRS showed good calibration. The AUROC through internal validations was 0.980 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.965-0.995). Regarding the clinical value, the decision curve analysis of CDRS showed a net value similar to that of CURB-65 in this cohort. CONCLUSION: CDRS is a novel, efficient and accurate prediction model for the early identification of COVID-19 patients with poor outcomes. Although it is not as advanced as the other models, CDRS had a similar performance to that of SOFA and CURB-65.

Hemophagocytosis, hyper-inflammatory responses, and multiple organ damages in COVID-19-associated hyperferritinemia.

Hyperferritinemia comes to light frequently in general practice. However, the characteristics of COVID-19-associated hyperferritinemia and the relationship with the prognosis were not well described. The retrospective study included 268 documented COVID-19 patients. They were divided into the hyperferritinemia group (≥ 500 µg/L) and the non-hyperferritinemia group (< 500 µg/L). The prevalence of fever and thrombocytopenia and the proportion of patients with mechanical ventilator support and in-hospital death were much higher in the hyperferritinemia group (P < 0.001). The hyperferritinemia patients showed higher median IL-6, D-dimer, and hsCRP (P < 0.001) and lowered FIB level (P = 0.036). The hyperferritinemia group had a higher proportion of patients with AKI, ARDS, and CSAC (P < 0.001). According to the multivariate analysis, age, chronic pulmonary disease, and hyperferritinemia were found to be significant independent predictors for in-hospital mortality [HR 1.041 (95% CI 1.015-1.068), P = 0.002; HR 0.427 (95% CI 0.206-0.882), P = 0.022; HR 6.176 (95% CI 2.447-15.587), P < 0.001, respectively]. The AUROC curve was 0.88, with a cut-off value of ≥ 971 µg/L. COVID-19 patients with hyperferritinemia had a high proportion of organ dysfunction, were more likely to show hyper-inflammation, progressed to hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, and indicated a higher proportion of death.

The clinical characteristics and prognosis of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities: a retrospective analysis of the infection peak in Wuhan.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to determine the clinical characteristics and prognosis of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities and to identify survival factors. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in Wuhan, China, between February 8, 2020, and March 9, 2020. Based on underlying diseases, patients were assigned to either the comorbidity group or the non-comorbidity group. The clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 were analyzed and a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to evaluate the prognosis predictive value of each comorbidity. RESULTS: During the study period, 278 COVID-19 patients were enrolled, 175 (62.95%) were assigned to the comorbidity group, and 103 (37.05%) to the non-comorbidity group. Of the patients in the comorbidity group, 34.86% were classified as critical. Further, patients in the comorbidity group had lower lymphocyte cell counts, and higher concentrations of D-dimer, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, and serum ferritin as well as higher critical illness severity scores than patients in the non-comorbidity group (P<0.05). Patients in the comorbidity group also had higher mortality, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and ventilation treatment rates than patients in the non-comorbidity group (P<0.05). The length of hospital stay was longer in the comorbidity group than in the non-comorbidity group (P<0.05). The most common underlying diseases included hypertension (40.65%), diabetes mellitus (20.5%), and cardiovascular disease (19.42%). Patients with comorbidities were more likely to develop cardiovascular sequelae associated with COVID-19, shock, acute kidney injury, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (30.86% vs. 12.62%, P=0.001; 18.86% vs. 8.74%, P=0.023; 24.57% vs. 11.65%, P=0.009; 33.71% vs. 14.56%, P=0.000, respectively). In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, older patients (¡Ý65 years) (log-rank test: χ2=4.202, P=0.040) and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (log-rank test: χ2=4.839, P=0.028) or diabetes mellitus (log-rank test: χ2=4.377, P=0.036) had shorter survival than those without comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with comorbidities were more severely affected and had a higher mortality rate. Age, COPD and diabetes mellitus were the main factors affecting the survival of patients.

Prominent coagulation disorder is closely related to inflammatory response and could be as a prognostic indicator for ICU patients with COVID-19.

The new outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a serious global public health concern. A more in-depth study of blood coagulation abnormality is needed. We retrospectively analyzed 147 consecutive patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to three ICUs in Wuhan from February 9th, 2020 to March 20th, 2020. The baseline coagulation and other characteristics were studied. Our results showed that the prolonged PT, FDP, DD were positively correlated with the levels of neutrophils, ferritin, LDH, total bilirubin, multi-inflammation cytokines, and negatively correlated with the lymphocytes level (p < 0.01). The level of ATIII was significantly negatively correlated with the levels of neutrophils, ferritin, LDH, total bilirubin, IL2R, IL6 and IL8 (p < 0.05). The patients in the ARDS group had a more prominent abnormality in PT, FDP, DD and ATIII, while the patients in the AKI group had more prolonged PT, more severe FDP and DD level, more inferior ATIII and Fib level than those in the non-AKI group (p < 0.01). The value of PT, DD and FDP were positively correlated with the classical APACHE II, SOFA and qSOFA scores, while the ATIII was negatively correlated with them (p < 0.001). The high levels of PT, FDP and DD were correlated with in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). In conclusion, blood coagulation disorder was prominent in ICU patients with COVID-19 and was correlated with multi-inflammation factors. The abnormality of blood coagulation parameters could be an adverse prognostic indicator for ICU patients with COVID-19.